World Of Warcraft, WoW Hand Armor

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Flipping Your Own Mysterious Fortune Cards- For A Profit?

The other night, I received an email. Now I usually get a few a day, but they are more about asking questions like “what do I do in this situation” or “the price of X is 50g, is it worth flipping?” and so on and so forth. I really enjoy answering them, so keep em coming! But this one stuck out....kinda like a sore thumb. Almost like Netherweave Bags. MFC's have been talked about alot since we first saw them, but in this email, I saw some things that you all should know...


Nithrius (Order of Entropy- Wyrmrest Accord) loves stats. Almost as much as I do.  After talking with him, I found out that the email was answering a question from a previous post I had, The New WoW Crack (Dec 17th). Alot of folks have made a ton of money on them, and well, they will continue doing so for some time. Enough with my blah, blah, blah, let's get to some numbers.....



Nithrius started out using Cinderbloom. At 20-28g per stack, he decided to buy around 6 pages worth (217 stacks). One of the sickening numbers he had was that he purchased 505g worth of Resilient Parchment. Now I thought I have bought a ton of them, but I guess I never realized how much I spent....staggering, huh? Anyways, back to the guts:

Cinderbloom: 217 Stacks
Total Spent: 5520g on Herbs- 505g for Parchment

Yield: 1209 Blackfallow Ink

Totals in MFC's:

10s: 637
50s: 267
1g: 187
5g: 88
20g: 20
50g: 4
200g: 5
5000g: 1 - (In case you were wondering, he stated it was #839/1209)

Total: 8224.2g

What? You don't believe a 5K? Screen Shot or it didn't happen, right?


Here is what interests me. Not only did he luck out on the RNG, but he got the 5K Card. Not only did he "waste" 5.5K for this experiment.....but he actually profited. 2.7K gold. Now before you mention "It's RNG" or "A thousand cards doesn't correctly predict the outcome".....well, he did it again, because he was feeling the same thing.

2800g - 137.5 stacks 
4000g - 223 stacks
743g  - Resilient Parchment

10s x 944
50s x 333
1g  x 262
5g  x 151
20g x 43
50g x 3
200g x 2
1000g x 0
5000g x 0







End results of both tests:
12,320g on herbs
1,248 on parchment (ouch!)

2947 cards flipped

10s x 1581           53.6478%
50s x 600           20.3597%
1g  x 449           15.2358%
5g  x 239        8.1099%
20g x 63        2.1378%
50g x 7            0.2375%
200g x 6        0.2036%
1000g x 1        0.0340%
5000g x 1        0.0339%

Vendor sale price total: 10,912.1g
Total 'Earned':          -2655.9g

Is that better? 2.6K loss make you feel better? see the .0339%? That isn't 3% folks. That would be three outta one hundred. That isn't .3 percent, or three out of one thousand. That's .03%, or three outta TEN THOUSAND. Now these do not take a math major to figure out, and the might not be 100% accurate, but they do give you an idea....If you are thinking about flipping your own cards, unless you bribe Blizzard somehow for a decent drop, you are way better off selling them. 

Thanks to Nithrius for taking the time and gold for this project, I am sure that with all the inks that he bought, his server is feeling the pain. I can only imagine if he sold the actual cards how much he would have got....well, let's check that quick now that I am thinking of it....

10.18g per on Horde side= 28,500g (with 5% AH cut taken out)
17.5g on Alliance side= 48,993g (with 5% AH cut taken out)

I think C&C Music Factory said it best......Things that make you go mmmm.

8 comments:

XanderEragon said... Reply To This Comment

WoW thats just crazy for real I'm Glad Nithrius did the test feel bad you lost that much gold thou. But WoW selling them would have gotten way profit. Simply amazing

XanderEragon

Buyit said... Reply To This Comment

Wow, great post! Now on the other hamd I flipped about 50 cards when I first started making them and got 2x 1k winners so of course I flipped another 50 and best I did was 20g winners, thats when I stopped flipping and kept to selling, but I do have a confirmed 5k winner from one of my cards. That confirmed winner is now on a cod mailing list for 10 cards per day from me

Anonymous said... Reply To This Comment

Hey,
now this is interesting.
Last saturday I did exactly the same experiment, i bought 215 stacks of stormvine to 16G/stack, and made 1055 inks out of it - I thought Cinderbloom is as good for millig as Stormvine, if we mill for Ashen Pigments...
Anyways I can confirm the second result of Nitrius.
I lost the amount of 2,5k Gold on this, having spendings of 215*16 + 0.4*1055 = 3862 . Also it took me quite a while to mill, create inks and then cards ...

http://imageshack.us/f/222/mysteriouscards.jpg/

Also i dont know how to register on this blog, do i have to have an account on the sites mentioned below the comment box ?
Until now i only now another blog, and this is about hunter, I was able to register there - just asking how this whole stuff works ^^

Well keep up the good work Alto

Cheers Copk

Deepcut said... Reply To This Comment

I did a guest post about this on JMTC a while back. I flipped over 8000 cards:

http://warcraftgoldanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/02/youre-not-going-to-be-rich.html

Altolycus said... Reply To This Comment

Deepcut...

Wow. I just checked your link. How did I miss that? You have balls doing that many sir. Big, big balls.

Nithrius said... Reply To This Comment

Nithrius here. The funny thing about this little experiment was that it had two parts. The first was the aforementioned blog post awhile back that I had read. The second was an ignorant trade poster (ignorance... in trade? unheard of!) that stated Cinderbloom was going for less than 30g.

Now, that's pretty low here... I only see it when farmers drop it. So I bought it all, and he shut up.

Anyway, I'm not too worried about the loss. Keep in mind I got the Inferno inks from it to. About 252.

Anonymous said... Reply To This Comment

Surely there is a small benifit long term to the MFC selling if you do this, as long as you dont cash in the 5k card. Everytime MFC come up in trade chat there's always people saying 5k never happens, if you have the card, you can link it in your bark. Or better still offer people the opportunity to see it in trade with you, kinda a motivator to those not sure.

Nathanmg said... Reply To This Comment

I haven't kept track of total amounts but I've flipped around 10,000 cards total since cata launched (mostly spare cards as I list everything in stacks of 100/200 and anything left over I use), but across that amount I've personally seen two 5k cards, five 1k cards and four 200g

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