The other night, I received an email. Now I usually get a few a day, but they are more about asking questions like “what do I do in this situation” or “the price of X is 50g, is it worth flipping?” and so on and so forth. I really enjoy answering them, so keep em coming! But this one stuck out....kinda like a sore thumb. Almost like Netherweave Bags. MFC's have been talked about alot since we first saw them, but in this email, I saw some things that you all should know...
Nithrius (Order of Entropy- Wyrmrest Accord) loves stats. Almost as much as I do. After talking with him, I found out that the email was answering a question from a previous post I had, The New WoW Crack (Dec 17th). Alot of folks have made a ton of money on them, and well, they will continue doing so for some time. Enough with my blah, blah, blah, let's get to some numbers.....
Nithrius started out using Cinderbloom. At 20-28g per stack, he decided to buy around 6 pages worth (217 stacks). One of the sickening numbers he had was that he purchased 505g worth of Resilient Parchment. Now I thought I have bought a ton of them, but I guess I never realized how much I spent....staggering, huh? Anyways, back to the guts:
Cinderbloom: 217 Stacks
Total Spent: 5520g on Herbs- 505g for Parchment
Yield: 1209 Blackfallow Ink
Totals in MFC's:
5000g: 1 - (In case you were wondering, he stated it was #839/1209)
What? You don't believe a 5K? Screen Shot or it didn't happen, right?
Here is what interests me. Not only did he luck out on the RNG, but he got the 5K Card. Not only did he "waste" 5.5K for this experiment.....but he actually profited. 2.7K gold. Now before you mention "It's RNG" or "A thousand cards doesn't correctly predict the outcome".....well, he did it again, because he was feeling the same thing.
End results of both tests:
12,320g on herbs
1,248 on parchment (ouch!)
2947 cards flipped
10s x 1581 53.6478%
50s x 600 20.3597%
1g x 449 15.2358%
5g x 239 8.1099%
20g x 63 2.1378%
50g x 7 0.2375%
200g x 6 0.2036%
1000g x 1 0.0340%
5000g x 1 0.0339%
Vendor sale price total: 10,912.1g
Total 'Earned': -2655.9g
Is that better? 2.6K loss make you feel better? see the .0339%? That isn't 3% folks. That would be three outta one hundred. That isn't .3 percent, or three out of one thousand. That's .03%, or three outta TEN THOUSAND. Now these do not take a math major to figure out, and the might not be 100% accurate, but they do give you an idea....If you are thinking about flipping your own cards, unless you bribe Blizzard somehow for a decent drop, you are way better off selling them.
Thanks to Nithrius for taking the time and gold for this project, I am sure that with all the inks that he bought, his server is feeling the pain. I can only imagine if he sold the actual cards how much he would have got....well, let's check that quick now that I am thinking of it....
10.18g per on Horde side= 28,500g (with 5% AH cut taken out)
17.5g on Alliance side= 48,993g (with 5% AH cut taken out)
I think C&C Music Factory said it best......Things that make you go mmmm.