World Of Warcraft, WoW Hand Armor

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Darkmoon Cards- Good Enough to Go All In?

With the Darkmoon Faire hitting this weekend, we are once again seeing the prices of both Decks and Single Cards go to the "normal" rate. You know what that means, right? Yeah. If you are a Scribe, don't skim. Take the time to read thoroughly, as you might learn something. =)



With the prices of Herbs on most servers seeing a definite drop from a month ago, they are starting to stabilize around the 30-40g mark per stack (Cata level herbs, Obviously). What does this mean to us? Alot. Ready for some Alto math? Don't worry, there's no tests involved....with most folks having finals coming up, thats the last I want to toss at you.


1:1- Cinderbloom, Stormvine, Heartblossom and Azshara's Veil

1.5:1 - Twilight Jasmine and Whiptail


Ok, here we go. What I mean with the ratio's above is Inferno Ink: Stack of Herbs. So if you are snatching up Cinderbloom at 30g per stack, you are "Alto Approved" through the RNG to get one Ashen Pigment, and 5 Blackfallow Inks (you can turn 2 Burning Embers into a Inferno, and you can turn 10 Blackfallow into an Inferno). Now if you grab a stack of whiptail for 40g, then you are expecting 3 Pigments, and 5 Blackfallow Inks. Make sense? Good.

Now to figure the rest. We need 10 Inferno Inks per Card. At the above numbers, 10 stacks of Cinderbloom means 300g (10 Inks). With Whiptail producing the 1.5 on average, we can get our 10 with only 7 stacks. Math? 280g. So in this case, more profits, albeit 20g, with Whiptail.

Now for Volatile Life. Not much you can do here to change the prices that are in the AH. And per Card, we need 30. So if you hit them up at 10g per, 300g there. At 5g? 150g. Easy, quick math. Now you want to know if they are profitable...

What I look at is my own little RNG (random number generator) when figuring out if Cards are profitable. Since there are 32 options made from the Darkmoon Card of Destruction proc, once again, easy math. The number I use currently use is 1600g (average sale price per card). Take the cost of above (to get your mats) and subtract. There is your estimated profit per card.

Now you want to know how I get my average sale price? Easy. Take the highest and lowest card in your AH right now (mine is 325g and 2875g) add em, and divide by two.

Hope this helps out the folks that are getting into this market, and remember, the week before and week of are "normally" the highest returns, and the most volatile as well, so watch your times and values in the AH. I see that Friday nights and Sunday days are the highest sale prices, but this may vary server to server.

Have fun, and make some gold! Oh, the Faire is outside Shatt this month...Starting Sunday!

7 comments:

Drayden said... Reply To This Comment

I've been thinking about getting back into the DMC market. Deck prices have fallen but production costs have fallen even more. The only thing holding me back is wondering how much demand has fallen. Guess it's time to consult TUJ.

Anonymous said... Reply To This Comment

Demand, at least on my server, has spiked. I've sold decks and cards at a pace that, frankly, is surprising me. I shoujld have stocked up on more Volatile Life and Whiptail when the prices were rock-bottom.

Ytsejam said... Reply To This Comment

"Now you want to know how I get my average sale price? Easy. Take the highest and lowest card in your AH right now (mine is 325g and 2875g) add em, and divide by two."

Just a gentle reminder for your readers who may or may not remember this:

While this is a nice neat quick and dirty way to obtain your average from the AH, know your competitors, if you have truly deep undercutters or a market reset to perceived "unreasonable" levels(or just missing cards where high unadjusted fallbacks have struck), these outliers can seriously screw your numbers and expectations. But like a I said, that aside, its a nice quick method...better than having to run a full average and standard deviation.

DoubleO said... Reply To This Comment

Something to consider:

It may not be profitable to convert blackfallow ink to inferno ink on your server. For instance on my server, the least that I am going to get for a blackfallow ink is 9g if I straight up sell it. If I craft that blackfallow ink into a fortune card, cookie, or glyph it should be even more per ink. On my server inferno inks are selling for 50g! 9 x 10 > 50. I would be crazy to trade blackfallow for inferno.

Also, if you are interested in selling the individual cards, understand that they can be pretty competitive with undercutting and you have a short window for high demand. You might want to commit yourself to babysitting these right before and during the faire.

Demand for final trinkets does seem to be waning, but that may be because people aren't playing alts as often this week, due to the patch.

Altolycus said... Reply To This Comment

Drayden,

Very true, it's happening all over with the prices. The demand is still there, as the trinkets that folks were holding out for (ZA and ZG) aren't worth the time to even equip (and they are blues).

Anony,

I feel your pain. I always buy up my Volatile Lifes on Sat afternoons, as that is the server low "tide" for them. I am sure that my situation is similar for other servers as well. =)

Ytesam,

"Quick and Dirty". That's definitely Alto approved! Hahahaha! Thanks for the update though! Much Appreciated!

DoubleO,

Great points there, thanks for the info! *Although I don't babysit my cards, I always toss em up for 48 hours and 9 outta 10 sell. So it's kinda a set it and forget it! I might lose a sale here and there, but I never forget not to post em!

Thanks for the comments all! Some very valid points across the board!

KhasDylar said... Reply To This Comment

One more thing to note, if you wanna be a true tricky greedy goblin, playing with Cards: if you're buying your Herbs and Volatiles from the AH and not from hired farmers (which is a much more preferred way btw), you must know not only your competitors, but also your suppliers/farmers! What do I mean with that? They are also constantly undercutting each other as they want their Herbs/Volatiles to be sold. If you buy up every little bit of some material at the price you wanna pay at maximum for it, you are raising the minimum price of that material: let's say, you want to buy Volatile Life for 15g maximum (300g per stack) and there are some for 10-14g and again some for 17-25g each. You buy all of it under 15g and the minimum price will be 17g. The next Volatile farmer will be undercutting that price and not your buying price, so you have to wait (sometimes more than a day on a low population realm) for the prices to consolidate. The same applies for Whiptail too of course: if your maximum buying price is 2.5g each, don't let the prices in AH go much up from that.
This is the same theory as you want to avoid market reset on items you are constantly buying, but want to enforce it on markets, where you are selling.

Altolycus said... Reply To This Comment

KhasDylar,

Great points there, other than your math is a bit off (volatiles are 200 per stack).

I would be wary on resetting markets on Volatiles, well, because they are volatile...there is alot of movement on them.

Short term you could use the reset for profits, and like you mentioned, you will get undercut, just hope your timing on the price reset works for quick sales.

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